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Jupiter Asset Managers – Market Update

Please see below that latest articles published by Jupiter Asset Managers yesterday (15/07/2020):

UK recovery pushed further out as GDP growth disappoints

Philosophically, Dan Nickols, Head of Strategy, UK Small & Mid Cap and his team are investors who are happy to range across the Value/Growth spectrum depending on where they can find the most appealing opportunities at a given point in time. In the UK small and mid-cap universe, as elsewhere, Growth has trumped Value for a number of years. The most expensive quintile in the universe trades on about 39x forward P/E, but if you remove the outliers from either end and compared the 30th percentile against the 70th percentile in terms of valuations, the gap there is widening too. This is the most polarised market from a valuation perspective that Dan can remember over his c.20-year career.

It is easy to rationalise why the market is behaving this way, said Dan, with so much uncertainty due to Covid-19 as well as the ongoing geopolitical issues at present. In that environment, with interest rates even lower for even longer, it is understandable that so many investors favour the relative ‘certainty’ of earnings provided by the growth dynamic notwithstanding elevated valuations. UK GDP growth in May was only 1.8% compared to the consensus expectation of 5%, meaning that the recovery feels like it is getting pushed further out. Nevertheless, looking forward it feels to Dan like the cheaper, more economically sensitive parts of the market, have more to gain from economic normalisation – providing, crucially, that one can find stocks that are not structurally challenged.

Everyone is in a holding pattern, for now, said Dan, while we wait to see what path the virus will take over the coming months and into next year. Have governments and central banks done enough to put economies into cold storage so they can be thawed out and resume growth, or will there be widespread balance sheet disruption that will take longer from which to recover? Only time will tell, but some visibility around these issues is what the cheaper parts of the market need to outperform, in Dan’s view. In the meantime, Dan and his team continue to prefer structural growth stocks, but are very conscious to have complementary exposure to well-run, conservatively-financed cyclical stocks that they believe can re-rate when conditions to normalise.

Is China’s domestic market overheating?

The biggest standout in a sea of red for global equity indices this year is the NASDAQ, which is up about 16%. However, there has, said Ross Teverson, Head of Strategy, Emerging Market, been a similar move in the CSI 300 Index, which consists of the 300 largest domestic A-share companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen. Meanwhile, other major emerging markets like Russia, Brazil, India and Mexico are down anywhere from 13% to 34%.

If you look within China, that gain in the CSI 300 Index looks modest to compared to what some other indices have done, for example China’s own equivalent to the NASDAQ is up c.55% YTD. Helping to fuel this rally has been a growing number of retail margin accounts in China.

There are signs, therefore, that the domestic Chinese market is starting to get quite heated. Valuations of Chinese companies with dual listing in Hong Kong began this year on a premium for their domestic listing, and that premium is now even wider.

What has driven this investor optimism? It is certainly true that China has coped relatively well with Covid-19, and there is also a strong narrative about the Chinese government’s support for home grown technology. Ross stressed that we should remember, however, that the Chinese economy has by no means escaped damage from Covid-19. A recent survey found 18% of respondents said their income had fallen by more than 50% during the pandemic, with another 15% saying their income had fallen 25%-50%. As in the West, the full impact of this economic stall has yet to be fully felt.

Ross’s own preference has been to gain exposure to China through Chinese businesses listed in the US, Hong Kong or Taiwan, as often he finds it possible to buy better business on lower valuations that way. Given the strong bull run in China’s domestic market, that clearly has not been the right positioning recently, and Ross won’t try to predict the timing of a correction, but Ross continues to believe that asset price discipline is vital.

What does a 5G world look like?

We don’t yet know exactly what the 5G technological revolution will look like, but it will certainly change how we interact with the world, said Stuart Cox, Fund Manager, Global.

With so many people now working from home, it’s easy to see why very efficient, high performing phones would be in high demand. Theoretically, 5G is dramatically faster than current 4G technology. Initially, coverage may be patchy, of course, until the infrastructure is fully rolled out, but the long-term potential of 5G phones is clear, says Stuart.

With such fast speeds, 5G handsets could render WiFi routers from broadband providers obsolete. We don’t yet know what ‘killer apps’ would replace it – the equivalent to Office 365 kickstarting the cloud revolution – but it’s very likely that 5G phones will become the medium through which we interact with a future 5G world, whether that’s smart cities, autonomous driving, industrial applications, or home offices. It’s a huge opportunity, says Stuart, and one that could unlock a lot of future growth that some of the world’s largest tech companies in particular are well placed to capitalise upon.

Please continue to check our Blog content for the latest investment, markets and economic updates from leading investment houses.

Please keep safe and healthy.

Carl Mitchell – Dip PFS

IFA and Paraplanner

16/07/2020

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Markets in a Minute: Global equity markets pause for thought

Please see article below from Brewin Dolphin’s ‘Markets in a Minute’ update received 15/07/2020.

China shares rally as state media declares bull market

Global share markets were mixed over the past week, although China has been a standout performer after investors piled in, encouraged by a state-owned newspaper that effectively declared a “healthy” bull market was on the way in Chinese equities.

Investors took the message to heart, and Chinese shares surged by almost 6% at the start of last week on trade volumes roughly double the average.

In the UK, a rally late in the week lifted the FTSE100 comfortably above the 6,000 level but performance in most markets was fairly muted due to the ongoing downbeat news around the coronavirus, worries about tensions between the US and China, and uncertainty around stimulus packages.

Last week’s markets performance*

  • FTSE100: -1%
  • Dow Jones: 0.95%**
  • S&P500: 1.75%**
  • Dax: 0.84%
  • Nikkei: -0.07%
  • Hang Seng: 1.4%
  • Shanghai Composite: 7.3%

*Performance in the week to Friday 10 July
**Performance from close of business on 2 July to Friday 10 July due to Independence Day holiday.

A mixed start to this week…

Share markets largely continued their bullish run on Monday, with the FTSE100 gaining 1.33% and European markets hitting their best levels in almost a month as reports suggested progress on two vaccine candidates in the US. China and other Asian markets continued their strong run.

However, the S&P500 and the Nasdaq in the US both closed down yesterday amid worries about the rolling back of reopening plans in some states due to rising coronavirus cases. That led to Asian markets falling sharply today.

Chinese policymakers have also become uneasy about the rapid rise in Chinese stocks, leading to two state-backed funds to begin offloading equities in a bid to cool the overheating market. The Chinese government has also sought to dissuade investors from accessing unauthorised sources of margin financing. The Shanghai Composite closed down by 0.8% today. In early trading in the UK and Europe, shares were heading down.

Stimulus cliff-edge in US, knife-edge summit in Europe

There can be no doubt that both the US and Europe need more stimulus to maintain their recovery, or at least prevent a sharp deterioration. In the US, a central plank of March’s $2trn stimulus package is being debated; the extra $600-a-week in unemployment benefits, which is paid on top of each state’s existing unemployment benefits, is due to end on July 31. This means a potential cliff-edge income drop for around 20m unemployed Americans that would cause average unemployment payments to fall by about 60%. Also, cash payments to households have already been received, and probably spent.

Fortunately, both the Democrats and Republicans want the extra stimulus to keep flowing, so it is more than likely we will see these benefits extended.

This coming Friday the EU will debate the €750bn coronavirus recovery package at a special summit, and it is far from certain the fund, dubbed Next Generation EU, will pass in its current size or format – the current proposal is that the fund is made up of grants and loans, and more fiscally conservative states, particularly the Netherlands, are objecting to the grants element and also, reportedly, the size of the package.

Virus news

While the headline figures from case growth around the world, and particularly the US, still make dire reading, a glimmer of hope can be seen in the decline in Swedish cases, although this could be for any number of reasons (less testing, some more lockdown measures). Crucially, however, there was an important suggestion that immunity may have spread more widely than believed, which has global implications.

Marcus Buggert of The Centre for Infectious Medicine at Karolinska Institutet, Sweden, said: “Our results indicate that roughly twice as many people have developed T-cell immunity compared with those who we can detect antibodies in.”

Apparently, this could mean herd immunity is achievable with far lower infection rates of, say, 20% rather than the 60% suggested more commonly.

Overall the trends in Covid cases may be improving but it is hard to say due to fluctuations in testing and the distortion of the Independence Day holiday in the US. Even outside Sweden, European cases seem to have been suppressed for now. The case growth rate in Brazil could be peaking but there is little sign of any improvement in Mexico, South Africa or India.

In Asia, after a week in which Tokyo recorded 100 new cases per day, they subsequently jumped more than 200 on Thursday.  Hong Kong will close its schools early for the summer holidays after finding 34 new locally transmitted cases on Thursday.

On the vaccine front, research into T-cell immunity is now being incorporated into vaccine development, in addition to the focus on antibodies we have seen so far. If successful, this could significantly boost any vaccination’s efficacy and the duration of immunity, though it is still very early days.

Summer statement boosts housing sector

In his summer statement last week, Chancellor Rishi Sunak refused to extend the government’s furlough scheme past October as widely expected, but he announced a stamp duty holiday until next March for properties worth up to £500,000. That boosted shares in housebuilders, and it may prompt an uptick in housing transactions. New buyer enquiries at estate agents were close to record levels in June, according to last week’s survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. Its survey, which questions surveyors around the country, suggested a slight recovery in prices and a big increase in properties being listed for sale. But looking ahead, views were a little more negative, implying price declines of 5% over the remainder of the year.

New buyer enquiries vs Nationwide average house price

 RICS House price balance vs Nationwide average house price

 Make the most of higher-rate tax relief in your pension while you can

Sunak hinted that efforts to address the dire situation that is the national finances will begin in November’s Budget. This may finally sound the death knell for one of the most attractive tax breaks in the UK, namely higher-rate tax relief on pension contributions.

It’s hard to see any more obvious revenue-raising step that would be so effective, and it has been speculated about for a decade. It would suggest anybody who hasn’t taken advantage of this year’s allowance should seriously consider doing so before the autumn.

One of the main focuses of this update are the views on potential monetary and fiscal policy actions from governments, particularly the UK, EU, China and US. It now seems that market analysts have turned their attention to how governments will act to deal with the financial consequences of this pandemic in the long term and how that will affect the markets as they begin to recover.

Paul Green 15/07/2020

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US Presidential Election 2020

Please see article below from J.P.Morgan’s weekly market update – received 13/07/2020.

The US presidential election will take place on 3 November 2020. The result will have important implications for investors, as the combination of policies employed by the next administration could have a significant influence on whether the US stock market can continue the outperformance that it has recorded for much of the last decade. Our regularly updated election insights provide investors with all they need to know as the election story evolves.

US election insight – July 2020

The race for the White House is heating up. Joe Biden and the Democrats have seen a surge in the polls in recent weeks, as the US experiences a wave of Covid-19 cases and against a backdrop of widespread protest against racial inequality and social justice issues. The Democrats are also making strong headway in the battle for the Senate, increasing the odds of a “blue wave” in November. The next key event will be the selection of Joe Biden’s running mate – a decision that takes on more significance this year than in a normal election campaign.

What will be voted on in November?

The race for the White House is the main focus, but a president’s ability to achieve their policy goals is influenced by who controls Congress.

American voters will be asked to make three key decisions on 3 November. The main focus will clearly be on who wins the keys to the White House, but a president’s ability to achieve their policy goals is influenced by which parties control the two arms of Congress: the House of Representatives and the Senate. If Congress remains divided between the Democrats and the Republicans as it is today, the winner of November’s contest will rely heavily on unilateral action taken via executive orders and rulemakings through the federal government via the department and agencies that have significant power. Enacting larger policy proposals requires approval by Congress and the winner of the election will have a much tougher time enacting that part of their agenda. Exhibit 1 shows the numbers needed to win each race.

The electoral college

The presidential candidate that wins the most number of votes (or wins “the popular vote”) does not automatically become president. Instead, the US employs an electoral college system. Votes are tallied at a state level, and the winner in each state earns the “electoral votes” that belong to that state (with the number of electoral votes in each state determined by population size). A candidate needs to win at least 270 of the 538 electoral votes in order to win the presidency.

The Senate

US senators serve six-year terms, which means that roughly a third of the 100 Senate seats are up for grabs at each federal or mid-term election. Currently the Republicans control the Senate. There are 35 seats up for election this year – 23 currently held by Republicans and 12 currently held by Democrats. To win control of the Senate, the Democrats would need to keep all of their existing seats and flip three seats if they win the presidency, or four if they do not, as the vice president casts tie-breaking votes.

The House of Representatives

Each of the 435 seats in the House are up for election in November, with the winners serving a two-year term. Currently the Democrats control the House. For the Republicans to win back control, they would need to win 21 additional seats and hold on to two vacant seats that were previously held by Republicans.

Members of both the House and the Senate serve on a wide range of committees. The Senate has the authority to approve presidential nominations – such as Supreme Court justices and members of the Federal Reserve Board. Betting odds at the start of July put a Democratic sweep of the House and the Senate as the most likely by a significant margin.

Exhibit 1: Votes or seats in the Electoral College, the Senate and the House of Representatives


Source: 270 to Win, The Cook Political Report, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *In 2016 Trump earned 306 pledged electors, Clinton 232. They lost, respectively, two and five votes to faithless electors in the official tally. **51 seats are needed for a simple majority if the dominant party in the Senate is not represented in the White House. If the president and majority party are the same, only 50 seats are needed for a majority because the vice president casts the tie-breaking vote. 2016 numbers include two independents that vote with the Democrats. Data as of 30 June 2020.

How might Covid-19 change the election timeline?


While Covid-19 has upended the usual schedule, election day itself is unlikely to shift given the need for Congress to approve any change
.

The coronavirus outbreak has already had a significant impact on the primary season – the process by which Democratic and Republican presidential candidates are formally nominated. After state lockdowns began in earnest in mid-March, 16 states and one territory either postponed, cancelled or switched their primaries to vote-by-mail with extended deadlines. The Democratic National Convention, at which the Democratic candidate is officially nominated to represent the party in the presidential election, has been delayed by a month to 17-20 August, a week before the Republican National Convention.

While election day may well look very different to any other seen before in the US, the 3 November date is not likely to move. Presidential elections are set in federal law to take place on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November, and for this to be changed, approval from the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives would be required.

It appears that social distancing is highly likely to be required in some form and may threaten voter turnout, which is particularly important for the Democrats’ prospects given the distribution of the electoral college. Non-traditional voting methods have been rising in availability and popularity in recent years (see Exhibit 3), but Democratic proposals for further expansions in 2020 have so far been met with strong opposition by the Republicans.

Exhibit 3: States permitting different methods of alternative voting

Number of states

What are the investment implications?


Election years are on average characterised by lower returns and higher volatility, but market dynamics in 2020 will be dominated by the prevailing economic environment

Typically, returns are lower and volatility is higher in election years than in non-election years (see Exhibit 6), although these averages are significantly skewed by major recessions and market events in recent election years. Returns and volatility in 2020 will almost certainly be attributable to Covid-19, not the political campaigns quietly existing alongside it. While the election is still a few months away, there are three areas of focus that could materially impact investor sentiment over the summer.

1.      Roadmap for the rebound
Top priority for whoever leads the next US administration will be to manage the economy as it restarts in earnest in 2021. Government finances have been stretched by the vast fiscal packages approved so far and tough choices will need to be made about whether to push ahead with further stimulus, or to try to tighten the belt as the recovery gets underway. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) may come under increasing pressure to keep yields low, although if this pressure is so strong as to cause investors to question the Fed’s independence, there is a risk that longer-dated yields could be pushed higher.

2.      US-China relations
The US-China relationship is now back on a worrying path. The hit to both business confidence and investment intentions across the globe in 2019 highlighted the economic damage that was caused by the trade war. Actions from either country that ratchet up tensions further ahead of the November election are a clear catalyst for market volatility. While so far it has been a Republican administration in charge of the negotiations, further information from the Democrats about how they would propose to manage this relationship may also impact market sentiment.

3.      Progressive policy proposals
The most progressive policies moved out of the picture as the most progressive Democratic candidates exited the race. Yet it is still evident that Joe Biden’s vision for corporate America is clearly different to President Trump’s. Democratic proposals for the use of anti-trust legislation to clamp down on “Big Tech”, plans for corporate tax changes and how to shore up the healthcare system are all matters that warrant close attention.

The combination of policies employed by the next administration will be an important factor in determining whether the US stock market’s leadership over much of the past decade will continue. An environment of escalating trade tensions has favoured the higher-quality US stock market relative to other regions historically, although we recognise that an increase in regulatory pressure on the tech titans could pose risks to US market leadership given the high weights to technology and communication services sectors in US indices. We will be tracking developments closely as 3 November approaches.

Exhibit 6: S&P 500 price returns
Percent, average return from 1932 – 2019

S&P 500 realised volatility
Percent, 52-week standard deviation of price returns, 1932-2019

As the US is one of the largest most influential markets globally, what happens next from a political point of view is important to the global economy.

Please keep checking back for regular updates and blog posts.

Charlotte Ennis

14/07/2020

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Invesco – Investment Market Update

Please see below the latest market update which was published by Invesco today (13/07/2020):

Although the virus pandemic is in decline in many parts of the world we’ve also seen a resurgence in infections, highlighting that the virus is by no stretch of the imagination under full control. Cases continue to rise in many EM, last week saw Melbourne go into a six-week lockdown, while the US’s most populous states, Florida, Texas and California, reported record jumps in deaths.

However, that has not been enough to pull the rug from under risk assets, which continued to move higher. More defensive assets, such as government bonds and gold, also gained. Equities led the way with EM at the forefront, helped by a strong rally in Chinese equities (see chart of the week for more background to this). DM, on the other hand, had more mixed fortunes. US leadership continued as index tech and tech-related heavyweights pushed higher, but Japan was lower. Unsurprisingly Momentum and Growth factors dominated from a style perspective. Credit outperformed government bonds, but with IG better than HY. Commodities made further gains, with Gold breaking through $1800 for the first time since 2011 and in touching distance of an all-time high. The US$ weakened further. In the UK, the FTSE All Share declined under 1%. Moves in fixed interest were fairly limited, with IG the best of the pack. £ edged higher against the US$.

Please continue to check our Blog content for the latest investment, markets and economic updates from leading investment houses.

Please keep safe and healthy.

Carl Mitchell – Dip PFS

IFA and Paraplanner

13/07/2020

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What is ESG? – An Introduction – Part 2

What is ESG? – An Introduction – Part 2

Last week, we posted part 1 of our 3-part introduction to ESG blog series. If you haven’t read this already, here’s the link: https://www.pandbifa.co.uk/what-is-esg-an-introduction-part-1/

In part 1, we explained what ESG is. Here, in part 2, we dig a little deeper

As we noted last week, a lot of the ESG processes within this industry are built upon the 10 ‘UN Global Compact Principles’.

The United Nations Global Compact is the world’s largest corporate sustainability initiative.

This is a call to companies to align strategies and operations with universal principles on human rights, labour, environment and anti-corruption, and take actions that advance societal goals.

Their mission:

‘At the UN Global Compact, we aim to mobilize a global movement of sustainable companies and stakeholders to create the world we want. That’s our vision.’

To make this happen, the UN Global Compact supports companies to:

  1. Do business responsibly by aligning their strategies and operations with 10 Principles on human rights, labour, environment and anti-corruption; and
  2. Take strategic actions to advance broader societal goals, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals, with an emphasis on collaboration and innovation.

The 10 UN Global Compact Principles:

Human Rights

Principle 1: Businesses should support and respect the protection of internationally proclaimed human rights; and

Principle 2: make sure that they are not complicit in human rights abuses.

Labour

Principle 3: Businesses should uphold the freedom of association and the effective recognition of the right to collective bargaining;

Principle 4: the elimination of all forms of forced and compulsory labour;

Principle 5: the effective abolition of child labour; and

Principle 6: the elimination of discrimination in respect of employment and occupation.

Environment

Principle 7: Businesses should support a precautionary approach to environmental challenges;

Principle 8: undertake initiatives to promote greater environmental responsibility; and

Principle 9: encourage the development and diffusion of environmentally friendly technologies.

Anti-Corruption

Principle 10:
Businesses should work against corruption in all its forms, including extortion and bribery.


The Screening Process

A key strategy of sustainable and responsible investing is incorporating environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) criteria into investment analysis and portfolio construction across a range of asset classes.

The 10 UN Global Compact Principles are the foundation for investment firms who wish to bring ESG on board within their investments.

Firms use 2 methods of screening whether the companies they choose invest in are considered compatible with the 10 principles.

Positive Screening

Investment in sectors, companies or projects selected for positive ESG performance in comparison to industry peers.

This involves selecting firms that show examples of environmentally friendly and socially responsible business practices. This also includes avoiding companies that do not meet certain ESG performance thresholds.

Negative Screening

The exclusion from a fund or certain sectors or companies involved in activities deemed unacceptable or controversial (e.g. tobacco, arms, gambling etc).

This involves avoiding companies that create negative impacts considered incompatible with the UN Global Compact Principles.

Summary

Positive Screening is our preferred method when we are looking at how firms screen, as this shows a more active approach into looking into firms that are committed to making a difference, rather than just excluding the ones that don’t. However, most companies use a combination of both as in reality, as the UN Global Compact was only started in 2015, most investment firms/sectors still have a long way to go towards meeting their ESG goals, but it’s good to see that the industry is starting to adapt.

Check back for Part 3 of this blog series next week, in which we will look at what we at People and Business are doing as a firm to make sure that we are moving in the right direction by selecting firms with good ESG processes.

Andrew Lloyd

13/07/2020

Data Source: unglobalcompact.org, ussif.org and Blackfinch Asset Management’s ESG Policy July 2020

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Tatton Investment Management Portfolio Adjustment

Please see below an article from Tatton Investment Management regarding their recent portfolio adjustment – received 08/07/2020.

Portfolio strategy

As we head into the second half of 2020, we are making some changes to portfolios.

Since April, we have held a small overweight to equities within the portfolios, focused on emerging markets, mainly as a consequence of a positive view on the economic outlook for China. Its weighting within the MSCI EM equity index, and its economic influence, made the position attractive. Within the equity component, we also moved our UK exposure to underweight.

The equity overweight was balanced by an underweight allocation to bonds. Within bonds, we maintained the overweight to non-UK inflation-linked government debt, a position we have held since October 2019.

Our overweight to equities has benefited all portfolios, meaning that the proportional exposure to equities has increased overall.

We remain positive on the medium-term outlook, wishing to retain the overall appetite for risk, but we are now shifting our focus from emerging markets towards Europe. Throughout the coronavirus crisis, the European Union (EU) has proffered surprisingly strong and supportive economic policies, which contrast heavily with China’s reluctance to fuel liquidity. Europe has also led the way in reopening its respective economies while managing to avoid a rebound in infection rates. Additionally, political risks are falling in Europe and rising in emerging markets and especially China. We remain underweight in the UK and have a neutral weighting in the US, Japan, and developed Asia.

Our bond weightings remain as before: weighted towards higher-grade bond issuers and bonds with inflation protection

How have recent events shaped our thinking?

From February to June, the global economy went through the fastest and deepest recession in history. In the midst of this, a disagreement over strategy between oil-producing countries caused energy supply to be increased just as demand was plummeting. Risk assets, including equities and corporate and emerging market debt, came under heavy selling pressure, with equity markets bottoming on 23 March. The US oil spot price remained under pressure, leading to an extraordinary ‘oil price shock’ on 20 April, when some oil futures traders were stuck with contracts and no storage space available – meaning they had to pay counterparties to take the oil off their hands.

It was clear early on that the spread of the COVID-19 virus would create huge disruption, with very little near-term visibility and with countries experiencing different challenges in getting their economies back ‘open’.  However, governments and central banks across the world pledged their support at each point it was needed.

In April, we felt China had dealt with the virus well enough to be in a recovery path ahead of other regions. Its domestic situation was likely to be positive, with strong fiscal and some monetary support. While exports would likely be curtailed by lockdowns elsewhere and continuing political pressure from the US especially, we felt it would provide reasonable demand for other Asian countries and for the wider commodity producers. In terms of the virus impact on emerging nations, we felt that it be difficult for their domestic situations but would probably not greatly affect output.

For Europe, the virus had meant significant lockdowns but also strong monetary support. However, the barriers to effective mutual fiscal support remained high, while it was not clear how long it would take to bring the disease under control.

The same seemed the case for the US, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had put in place extraordinary asset purchases, buying unprecedented amounts of US Treasuries well in excess of near-term requirements, and extending this ‘quantitative easing’ into corporate bonds. Meanwhile, Congress gave bipartisan support to large unemployment payments, employment support and, in conjunction with the Fed, providing loan support to businesses.

The UK enacted similar support measures, although economic weakness over the past two years left it marginally less able to sustain long-term support, especially given the process of leaving the EU was still incomplete. We felt this would limit the ability of UK markets to outperform and that sterling would be likely to decline should risks worsen.

Risk markets rebounded in the second quarter, with portfolios recouping much of the losses sustained during the February and March falls. Emerging markets performed well, with China’s economic rebound providing the economic stability we expected.

Government bond markets, having been strong in the first quarter, remained stable. The high level of fiscal deficits created new issuance. Both government and corporate bonds benefitted generally from central bank purchases.

What is the near-term outlook?

As well as claiming the lives of thousands, the coronavirus has altered our day-to-day existence. Without a vaccine, it still poses a threat. Where the disease remains active, life cannot return to normal. China has shown that localised lockdowns can reduce infection rates substantially which, in turn, can allow most people to return to some form of work. However, social distancing rules remain in place, and personal choices about levels of contact mean that life is fundamentally different.

Economic activity is rebounding, helped by relief payments to companies and individuals. In the US, private sector incomes have risen sharply. The effective savings will support activity in the coming months. However, the fall in expenditure still places businesses in a precarious position. Filings for bankruptcy have risen to levels exceeding those of the financial crisis a decade ago.

Monetary policy initiatives have kept liquidity more than adequate and risk asset prices have regained much ground. In the case of the US Nasdaq composite index, prices have even hit new highs. Financial markets have functioned, but the fuel of available economic activity is thinly spread – meaning that current yields – and expected returns – are historically low.

Fiscal support has been more than adequate for this half-year, but more may well be needed through the course of the rest of this year and next. Europe has received a boost in the form of a joint French-German initiative to allow some mutualised debt issuance. Germany has also led the country-specific push for government spending, reversing frugality of previous years.

China’s domestic policies remain fiscally easy, although with less monetary infusion than other developed nations, with the People’s Bank of China still worried about excessive real estate valuations. However, the growing discord between China and the US, and the imposition of draconian new laws in Hong Kong, presents a significant impediment to markets making progress.

Although many aspects remain positive for emerging markets, China’s rising political risks will remain a concern throughout the region, while benefits from its earlier virus actions start to dissipate.

The US outlook remains positive, although risks are still elevated. The Federal Reserve policy framework can continue with significant liquidity injections, but its pace of increase has slowed. As the presidential election approaches, Donald Trump’s appeal to voters has fallen. Joe Biden, the likely Democratic nominee, may well be viewed as less business-friendly, but this is offset by the greater sense of global stability that a Democratic victory offers. Current electoral dynamics are not visibly impacting markets, which are more focused on Congress providing renewed household payments after July, and ahead of businesses being able to resume hiring.

The UK has had the most difficult economic environment of any of the developed nations and a return to normality is proving slow. London has been particularly hard hit, although the financial centre has appeared to function remarkably well given how few people are physically in the City. The Johnson government has announced ambitions for longer-term investment. Much will be needed especially if European trade negotiations are bumpy. The UK remains a concern, with sterling weakness the most likely outcome should risks become reality.

Globally, the most positive improvement has been in Europe’s policy backdrop. In addition to the fiscal stimulus mentioned earlier, the European Central Bank has made substantial injections using a number of tools. The German Constitutional Court’s ruling (that the ECB’s 2015 bond purchases were possibly improper) may yet present problems. However, a sense of discord among EU nations has been quelled – by Chancellor Merkel and other EU leaders – for the time being at least. After experiencing an awful February and March, resilient healthcare systems (particularly in Germany and France) have helped Europe to begin opening up with less personal risk-aversion than in the US, the UK and, to some extent, Asia. All of these factors make us more positive on Eurozone equities and the euro itself.

Portfolio positioning and changes

  • Given our change in focus, most portfolio activity centres on moving from emerging market equities into European equities.
  • A small reduction in cash has been deployed in various regions to balance portfolio exposures.
  • Ethical portfolios reflect this change in positioning through a reduction in emerging markets managers, redeployed in global equity funds.
  • Income portfolios have been rebalanced, with increased equity weights allocated to existing global equity managers.
  • We have not made any fund manager changes to the portfolios in this rebalance.

As you can see from the above, Tatton look to remain positive and wish to retain the overall appetite for risk but are now shifting their focus. As Tatton move their focus from emerging markets equities towards European equities it will be interesting to see what effect this has on their portfolio’s.

Please keep checking back for regular up to date blog posts.

Charlotte Ennis

09/07/2020

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A.J. Bell – Mini Budget Summary – Stamp duty sugar rush for the housing market

Please see below an article published by A.J. Bell yesterday (08/07/2020), which summarises the main housing market points from the Chancellor’s mini budget which he delivered yesterday:

Today’s statement was always likely to focus on ‘good’ news items designed to stir the UK economy from its economic slumber. We got that in the form of a big VAT cut for the hospitality sector, new job creation programmes and a headline-grabbing reduction in stamp duty.

However, the Chancellor was clear stabilising the public finances and paying off the estimated £300 billion bill racked up during the pandemic will be a key priority in his Autumn Budget later this year. And with Boris Johnson ruling out a return to austerity, a tax-grab seems almost inevitable as the Treasury seeks to balance the books.

Stamp duty boost for homebuyers

Homebuyers have been given a potential £15,000 boost in the Chancellor’s move to scrap stamp duty on all homes worth up to £500,000. The almost £4bn giveaway is a massive leap in the stamp-duty-free rate from £125,000 to £500,000, and on the average UK property price* of £231,855 a homebuyer would save £2,137. The tax relief will clearly benefit those in London and the south-east most, where house prices are higher and so the potential tax saving is greater.

The move is also across the board, meaning even those buying a second or third home or buying multi-million pound houses will benefit from the tax break – clearly the intention is to encourage all areas of the market to get buying and stimulate the housing market.

The tax cut should provide a much-needed shot in the arm for the property industry, which saw a complete shutdown during lockdown and is now plagued with worries about falling house prices. The Bank of England’s mortgage approval figures, which are a good indication of the pipeline of new home purchases, have fallen dramatically and are a third lower than their worst point in the financial crisis – showing just how dire the outlook is for the market for the rest of this year.

The fact that the move is temporary will be like a sugar rush for the housing market, with people who were planning to move hurrying to do so before the stamp duty holiday ends at the end of March next year. It means that we’re likely to see transactions fall off a cliff once the tax break is whipped away in 2021.

The Government will hope that the tax giveaway will see some households choose to spend that money somewhere else, on furnishing their home or spending elsewhere – in order to help revive the massive drop-off in consumer spending during lockdown. However, it’s more likely that people will just choose to buy a more expensive property, meaning the additional spending will be focused just on the housing market rather than boosting a range of businesses.

House builders, estate agents and builders’ merchants have something to smile about

Much of the Chancellor’s plan to preserve British jobs and boost the economy had been floated beforehand but house builders, estate agents and builders’ merchants all have something to smile about. Mr Sunak tried to do his bit for hoteliers, restaurateurs and publicans, although his limited room for manoeuvre when it came to spending, owing to the existing national debt, means the benefits here may be more limited.

Estate agents such as Foxtons, Savills and Countrywide will all be hoping for a big step up in business thanks to the stamp duty cuts, especially after May’s disastrous new mortgage applications figure of just 9,273. However, the danger is that demand is all crammed into the next few months and business levels then plunge again come April 2021 when the levy returns. Savills was up 2.5% after the speech, putting it in the top ten performers in the FTSE 250.

House builders did not get an extension to the Help to Buy scheme, though doubtless they will continue to press for it, though they too will be pleased to see the stamp duty cut and the emphasis on helping first-time buyers. Shares in Barratt, Taylor Wimpey, Persimmon and others responded strongly to the rumours of this policy initiative on Monday and so are doing relatively little now the facts are known.

Builders’ merchants may benefit too, which could help Grafton and Travis Perkins, while providers of insulation such as SIG and Kingspan will be looking forward to increased demand as a result of the Chancellor’s commitment to more energy efficient homes and public sector premises. Shares in bathroom equipment and accessories supplier Norcros and Topps Tiles are rising in response to the prospect of higher volumes ahead.

The hospitality sector will welcome attempts to boost spending in pubs, hotels and restaurants though Mr Sunak did not venture down the voucher path. Disappointing as this will be for leisure firms, such a giveaway would potentially have had long-term consequences and set a bad precedent – once free money is offered once it is very hard to stop handing it over.

As such, the policy is more nuanced and therefore less dramatic. The VAT cut may entice some visitors but the Monday-Wednesday time frame and £10 limit for the month of August on dining out may not move the dial much – and nor are any of those incentives likely to persuade those who are too frightened or too vulnerable to venture to such public places, or indeed those who have lost their job or are on furlough, for whom cash could be tight and eating out a luxury anyway.

Nevertheless, Wagamama-owner Restaurant Group is taking some comfort from the plan as the shares are up 6%, to put it in the top ten gainers in the FTSE All-Share and InterContinental Hotels is up 2.3% to place it second-best in the FTSE 100 today.

Please continue to check our Blog content for the latest investment, markets and economic updates from leading investment houses.

Please keep safe and healthy.

Carl Mitchell – Dip PFS

IFA and Paraplanner

09/07/2020

Team No Comments

Cornelian Market Commentary – July 2020

Hector Kilpatrick, Senior Investment Director and Head of Risk Managed Funds at Cornelian Asset Management, summarises the previous month and gives the Investment Outlook for July:

The MSCI UK All Cap NR index returned +9.4% during the three months to the end of June, whilst the MSCI World ex UK (£) NR index returned +20.4% in Sterling terms. Equity markets recovered a significant amount of the ground lost during the precipitous decline in asset prices observed during the first quarter of the year. The collapse was triggered by a sudden realisation that the economic impacts of the policies enacted to restrain the COVID-19 virus outbreak would result in a deep recession, the scale of which could challenge the debt-based capitalist economic system. However, policy makers were swift to announce enormous economic support packages, both fiscal and monetary. These, alongside the easing of lockdown restrictions in many jurisdictions and positive incremental news concerning the extraordinary effort being applied to develop possible vaccines, helped improve investor confidence during the period under review.

In Sterling terms, most major regional equity markets returned between +17% and +22%, the exceptions being the UK (see above) and Japanese markets (MSCI Japan NR (£) Index, +12.0%). The American equity market provided the strongest return (MSCI USA NR (£) Index, +22.0%), aided by the index’s significant exposure to technology and pharmaceutical stocks.

The UK equity market return was impacted by the index’s significant exposure to energy and financial stocks (which, in share price terms, have lagged the recovery seen in other sectors), the persistence of COVID-19 within the population and concerns regarding the outcome of Brexit negotiations.

“Gilts continued to perform well producing a positive return as investors anticipated further policy announcements which would support government bond prices.”

Despite the more positive investment environment, Gilts continued to perform well producing a positive return (iShares Core UK Gilts ETF, +2.4%) as investors anticipated further policy announcements which would support government bond prices. Investment grade debt rebounded strongly as credit spreads narrowed following the announcement that the Federal Reserve would support corporate debt markets (iShares Core £ Corporate Bond ETF, +9.6%). ‘Riskier’ high yield debt also produced a strong positive return but interestingly, given the seemingly more ‘risk on’ environment, marginally underperformed investment grade debt (iShares Global High Yield GBP Hedged ETF, +9.4%).

The Brent crude oil price ended the quarter at $41.2/barrel, an increase of 80.1% since the end of March. The hard stop to global economic activity has seen a collapse in demand for oil products, however production cuts and an incremental relaxation of economic lockdowns has helped the oil price recover somewhat.

In the three months to the end of June, the gold price rose 12.9% to $1781/oz. Sterling weakness versus the US Dollar boosted returns marginally such that the value of gold held by UK based investors rose by 13.5% (to £1,443/oz). 

Investment Outlook

During the second quarter of the year asset prices rallied strongly following the sharp COVID-19 related declines witnessed during the first quarter. Policy makers have been impressively swift to announce innovative measures to support economies which have experienced a hard stop. Measures range from the fiscal (furlough schemes, top ups to unemployment benefits, emergency lending/grants to corporates, business rate reductions and the like) to the monetary (interest rate cuts, printing of money to finance the purchase of government debt and, to a lesser extent, corporate debt).

These measures (which have driven down the cost of government and corporate debt financing) allied with tangible successes in suppressing the spread of the virus in developed economies have, in aggregate, improved the confidence of company management teams concerning the outlook for economic growth. They have also galvanised investors’ risk-taking appetite and have led to a strong bounce in regional equity market indices. News concerning the unprecedented drive to find successful treatments and vaccines has also helped improve sentiment.

However, looking a little more deeply into the components of the market rally calls into question the improving confidence expressed by rising asset prices in general. Those companies most exposed to the economic cycle have lagged index returns appreciably. Some sectors (such as banks, energy and travel) remain close to their lows relative to index returns. The companies that have driven index levels higher include those which have seen a sharp acceleration in demand due to their web-based propositions and those which have little sensitivity to the economic cycle.

The question that needs to be answered therefore, is whether the sugar rush of extraordinary policy measures, both fiscal and monetary, will give way to a more sober assessment of the outlook for economies, and thereby profits. We believe this is likely, albeit with caveats.

“The real scale of ‘post COVID-19’ unemployment has yet to reveal itself.”

The first thing to note that the real scale of ‘post COVID-19’ unemployment has yet to reveal itself. With companies embracing higher debt levels to remain in business in the short term, the hangover could be material, particularly as the unfettered release from lockdown will only be assured after a successful vaccine is found and manufactured at scale. Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear that this condition will be satisfied in 2020. In a realistic best-case scenario, we may receive increasingly positive news concerning the development of a vaccine through the rest of the year, however populations will still have to suppress the spread of the infection until vaccines can be deployed in early 2021.

Barring the possibilities that the virus may lose some of its potency, or that specific populations are able to eliminate the virus completely from their midst, one has to assume that the rate of virus spread will correlate with the pace that economies open up (notwithstanding any seasonal effects). If correct, this means that the ‘V’ shaped recovery that is hoped for may well disappoint as rolling localised lockdowns are introduced which will ensure heightened public awareness of the need to continue to socially distance, etc. This may well sustain higher levels of unemployment, and therefore result in consumers hoarding cash after the first flush of spending driven by pent up demand.

“Companies are likely to continue to operate in an environment of reduced demand and increased costs for the rest of 2020.”

This means that companies are likely to continue to operate in an environment of reduced demand and increased costs for the rest of 2020. Given these dynamics we expect the rate of company bankruptcies to accelerate, which may undermine banks’ confidence to lend to corporates. The withdrawal of this financial lubricant from the engine of economic activity will further exacerbate the issues described.

It is also worth noting that over the past month or so the Federal Reserve has stopped the net printing of money and this slowdown in the rate of monetary stimulus could become a headwind to further asset price appreciation.

Nonetheless, central banks around the world have continued to demonstrate a desire to manipulate asset prices higher during times of economic crisis which reduces the perception of downside risk. This doctrine has not only resulted in all-time low interest rates, but also threatens the adoption more widely of negative interest rates. Given the enormous amount of cash currently sitting on the side-lines waiting to be deployed in this low (or no) interest rate environment, the pressure to put this money ‘to work’ is high and only small incrementally positive developments could be enough to see this happen. Therefore, given these factors, it is prudent not to be positioned too defensively.

The view from this update is that although signs of a recovery are apparent with market indices rising and lockdown gradually easing, this could be temporary relief before the real economic effects of the Coronavirus Pandemic begin to reveal themselves down the road. 

The global coordinated policy response needs to be maintained and strengthened.

Paul Green

08/07/2020

Team No Comments

Jupiter Update: A Golden Age for Technology

Please see the below article by Jupiter which we received yesterday (07/07/2020):

Ross Teverson

Head of Strategy, Emerging Markets

Technology – a bright spot in Emerging Markets

Technology has been a welcome bright spot as we have weathered the global coronavirus pandemic and subsequent social and fiscal response. While the worst of the market reaction appears to be behind us, many emerging and frontier market companies are trading on valuations at or near historic lows.

The same valuation case cannot be made for the technology sector as a whole, given recent strong performance. However, for some companies that are key enablers of long-term technological change, we believe that share prices don’t yet fully reflect the positive outlook. South Korean consumer electronics and semiconductor companies Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix continue to benefit from industry consolidation and now rising demand from other sectors aside from smartphones. The global market for DRAM memory chips – previously characterised by aggressive capex spending and price wars – has now become a global oligopoly with Samsung and SK Hynix two of the three players (alongside US-listed Micron). This means the market is fundamentally different with greater pricing discipline and more rational behaviour.

Market-leading semiconductor chip makers TSMC and Mediatek, both in Taiwan, are also well-positioned to benefit in a post-COVID world. Lacklustre demand for consumer electronics products is being shored up by demand from the rollout of 5G networks and rising demand from servers as people consume more data and employees work from home around the world. We think this is a trend that could continue. People are slowly going back to work, but companies now need to consider the ability of their systems to allow employees to work remotely.

Elsewhere, COVID-related restrictions are driving change in consumer behaviour. More and more consumers are making purchases online. Internet companies are at the forefront of this change, but this is not limited to the Chinese tech giants Tencent and Alibaba. Chinese online retailers JD.com and VIPShop are both benefitting from the shift. The move to cashless payments is another change which is being accelerated by the global response to COVID. One way to gain access to this trend is through payments technology and services companies which provide the equipment or infrastructure to transact digitally. While some of the global leaders are in the US, there are a number of market leading players throughout emerging markets.

The technology sector has had a strong run through the crisis and we believe the long-term structural changes behind the sector are likely to persist.  However, our investment process leads us to be wary of consensus and has, in a number of instances, driven us to look beyond the most well-known names in the index and invest only in those companies where we believe the market currently underestimates their potential.

Outside the technology sector, we continue to find that examples of underappreciated positive change in markets that appear overlooked by investors in the current climate, including frontier markets, Mexico and Turkey. But there are opportunities to be had in Asia and Latin America as well. Investors have to be willing to look beyond the headlines and short-term noise to find operationally robust companies, trading on attractive valuations and exposed to long-term trends which can continue to drive returns over time.

Guy de Blonay

Fund Manager, Global Equities

The financial technology revolution

In a very broad sense, the unthinkable happened as Covid-19 broke out – most of the world decided nearly simultaneously to suspend all activity. Lockdowns have started to be eased in certain parts of the world but there is still a lot of uncertainty around the shape of the recovery and the risks related to a second wave of infections.

Amid all this uncertainty, one aspect of it all seems clear: The financial technology revolution we have discussed in the past remains firmly in place with the pace of change now accelerating. In a recent survey, 75% of Fortune 500 CEOs said technology transformation has gained speed following this crisis.

Obviously, economies will start to re-open and activity will gradually go back to normal at some point. But in some areas, we believe the evolution in company, employee and customer behaviour has reached a tipping point. There are three sub-segments in the financials and financial technology space that look particularly promising to us: digital payments, remote working and cloud computing.

The transition to electronic payments has been a key theme in the portfolios for some time. The decline in retail sales is a headwind for the sector in the short term. But longer-term, in the words of Gary Cohn – former director of the US National Economic Council, “Covid-19 is speeding up the death of cash”. The World Health Organisation has pushed electronic payments as an alternative to banknotes – a potential vector of germs and – in the UK cash withdrawals have halved since the outbreak.  E-commerce is another driver of the transition to cashless societies as the closure of stores has pushed merchants and consumers to migrate to online platforms. Overall, the low penetration of card payments and e-commerce in developed economies bodes well for the growth prospects of the sector.

Working from Home (WFH) and Cloud Computing represent another promising sub-theme. WFH is now socially and professionally acceptable. Jes Staley, Chief Executive of Barclays, said that “the notion of putting 7,000 people in a building may be a thing of the past”. His views were echoed by a recent CFO survey from Gartner. 74% of respondents said they would move 5% or more of their on-site employees to remote positions once the lockdowns are lifted. The first winners of these changes are likely to be the companies that provide tools for employee collaboration.  But remote working also means employees have to access data and application outside the traditional security network. Innovative cybersecurity vendors like Okta will benefit.

All things digital – including WFH – need the cloud to deliver their functionality and services. Cloud is also a driver of business resiliency which is coming at the top of the CEO agenda in a context where the pandemic has disrupted the operations of financial services institutions worldwide. While some companies had to send their entire IT staff back home, cloud infrastructure providers like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Alibaba and Tencent have demonstrated they could ensure continuity of service for mission-critical systems. Beyond these giants, the mass adoption of cloud computing should also benefit the broader ecosystem of software and services providers that help companies such as financial institutions to modernize their IT systems.

Stuart Cox

Fund Manager, Global

Microsoft – defying gravity

The coronavirus pandemic has radically altered the way we communicate, how we socialise and how we work. This societal shift has proved a great opportunity for companies exposed to this rapid change, and one notable example is Microsoft.

In fact, Microsoft is a stock that to many is defying gravity having rallied back to near all-time highs just when the economic background appears so challenging.

When analysing investment opportunities, above and beyond everything else I am always looking for something that positively differentiates that business from its peers. Sometimes that is a personal observation or judgement. Right now, we have a rare situation where we can share and experience that unique ‘differentiator’, understand its importance and try to value its worth to society and equity investors. Right now, we are living Microsoft Teams, a previously considered modestly useful application integrated into Office365.

Teams was, until recently, considered an incidental application within the Microsoft product range. Now it is a critical addition to Microsoft’s strategy of bundling software products, security, analytics, AI and so on through the cloud to sell to the corporate world. All this leveraging from Office 365 with businesses on long term contracts which are priced off volume of workload data (which tends to go up – hence the high recurring revenue model). Teams provides a competitive advantage, is competing with the equally successful Zoom, both of which have provided unwelcome competition to existing video conference market incumbents.

Turning to the numbers: Microsoft recently reported positive earnings. Sales for the quarter were at 15% and it maintained its start of year guidance of 12% full year. Not bad for a $1.4tn market capitalised business to be able to grow sales at a rate 3-4x the rate of global GDP in a normal year.

Given the economic situation, it is important to also reference previous downturns in 2003 and 2008. In these years, Microsoft reported a significant loss in sales momentum. Both are useful references but are very limited in their predictive ability. We know that Microsoft is a completely different company now. In previous years, the business focused on hardware, phones, computers to the consumer. Fast forward to today, and the focus is selling bundled software to the corporate customer.

Of course, that’s not to say that Microsoft is without risk. While it does have some transaction business risks and is not immune to economic risk, but the company’s earnings reassure the market that the investment case remains very much intact and it is set to continue to be, I believe, a strong performer in this economic environment.

Another interesting insight from Jupiter Asset Management.

COVID-19 has completely changed how we live and work this year, in a way the world has never seen before, and its impact will be felt for a long time.

The change to how we work i.e. working from home has clearly boosted the technology sector within the markets.

Andrew Lloyd

08/07/2020

Team No Comments

Brooks Macdonald – Weekly Market Commentary

Please see below an article written by Edward Park – Brooks Macdonald – received – 06/07/2020

Weekly Market Commentary | Chinese editorial brings optimism despite rising COVID-19 cases in the US

  • Equity sentiment remains torn between a highly accommodative backdrop and the rise in US new cases
  • While US new cases grow by the day, fatalities remain suppressed providing hope to risk assets
  • Chinese state media effectively endorse the strong year-to-date gains in Chinese markets

Equity sentiment remains torn between a highly accommodative backdrop and the rise in US new cases

New cases of COVID-19 in the United States continued to rise over the weekend although, with the Friday holiday, reporting may well be distorted even more than is usually the case at weekends. In terms of the hot spot states, Florida saw a gain of 5.3% and Arizona 3.7% as the growth showed little sign of slowing. The good news remains that fatalities are supressed, with average growth across the US of just 0.2% compared to case growth which increased by 1.7%. This remains key to markets, given the impact of fatalities on the economy versus health trade-off. Markets can be expected to continue to set their tone from this interplay.

While US new cases grow by the day, fatalities remain suppressed providing hope to risk assets

Overnight Chinese indices have seen large gains, as state media stated that a healthy stock bull market was more important than ever post-pandemic. This front-page editorial for the Securities Times suggests that Beijing will continue to act to support the equity market through regulation as well as fiscal and monetary policy. The editorial has supported risk appetite globally, with European indices opening to strong gains and US stock futures implying a solid start to the week. With risk assets currently more finely poised, given what is happening in the US, government and central bank support is of growing importance.

Chinese state media effectively endorse the strong year-to-date gains in Chinese markets

The comment by Chinese state media is viewed as a de facto sanctioning of the market rally in China. This has not always been the case, with the government historically using its powers to try to curb retail-fuelled gains, particularly where there was a concern over leverage. Chinese retail positioning has been gaining traction in recent weeks as the MSCI China edges closer to a 10% year-to-date gain. As the Chinese economy reopens, local investors have been looking past the US new case growth, with the Chinese technology sector being a particular beneficiary of inflows.

Please continue to check back for further blog content and updates.

Charlotte Ennis

07/07/2020