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British Land update improves sentiment towards commercial property sector

Please see below for AJ Bell’s latest market updates, published 09/10/2020 and received over the weekend. The daily market update is written by Russ Mould, AJ Bell’s Investment Director and his team. The article highlights the current position with UK real estate:  

British Land

“As an investor in many different types of commercial property British Land is a good bellwether for UK real estate.

“This is why its positive trading update, with rent collection trending in the right direction and the decision to reinstate the dividend, is firing shares in several of the London market’s property stocks on Friday.

“Particularly notable is the recovery in retail – with figures suggesting footfall and sales across its portfolio of shops and shopping centres weren’t too far off pre-Covid levels in September.

“The company has also managed to sell some retail assets above book value – though it looks like these are in more robust areas of retail like large standalone DIY stores.

“So far, the tighter restrictions being brought in don’t appear to be having an undue impact on shopping, though weakening consumer sentiment won’t help.

“And the CVAs dreaded by landlords are a growing menace for British Land as troubled retailers look to reduce their rent bills.

“In a sign the business might face a longer term problem with its offices – occupancy here is way, way down as you might expect given the Government U-turn from ‘return to work’ back to ‘work from home if you can’.

“The question is whether there is a tipping point at which office tenants decide they no longer require a large central hub for their workers.

“We are probably not there yet, but what could happen is a shift away from sites, like those in central London, where there is a reliance on public transport towards locations outside city centres which have plenty of car parking.

“Ultimately there are arguments for businesses retaining their offices in the medium term. After all, working from home isn’t a viable option for everyone, more space might be required to comply with distancing requirements and there are advantages to having people physically on site, particularly new starters.”

Commercial property is a key diversifier for investor’s portfolios. Good bricks and mortar property funds work well over the long term but have liquidity issues hence some peoples’ preference for property shares.

Please keep using these blogs to keep your market views up to date and holistic.

Stay safe and all the best

Paul Green

12/10/2020

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Housing market and Rightmove are resilient (for now)

Please see below for the latest update from AJ Bell Regarding the housing market:

Both the property site and the wider space are likely to be tested in the autumn

Thursday 13 Aug 2020 Author: Tom Sieber

The resilience of the UK housing market has been one of the notable features as we moved out of lockdown and into the next phase of the pandemic.

This was reflected in recent first half results from property site Rightmove (RMV) which saw the company reveal that between the beginning of June and end of July demand for sales properties was 50% higher than the same period in 2019.

In lockdown there were predictions that estate agents would act on grumbles over Rightmove’s increasing level of fees and use a period when the market was effectively in hibernation to leave the platform.

However, membership numbers for agency branches and new home developments combined were down just 3.3% since the start of 2020 to 19,158.

It seems rather than driving agents away, a period of housing market volatility may have reinforced the network effect which has helped underpin the company’s impressive growth over the last decade or more.

Because the site has the most listings, it is therefore the one which prospective property buyers will go to when looking for their next home. This reinforces its position as a must-have product for estate agencies and gives it significant pricing power when it comes to securing subscriptions from agencies.

Agents are arguably more reliant than ever on Rightmove’s services and reach as they have to sell properties to stay afloat.

However, it will be interesting to see if this holds true if or when Rightmove looks to return to a pre-Covid pricing structure having offered discounts through the crisis.

Currently discounting has been extended until the end of September – although that month will see a reduction of just 40% compared with 75% when lockdown was at its height.

The foundations of the housing market may also come under pressure this autumn, assuming the furlough scheme comes to an end as planned in October.

This could lead to a material increase in levels of unemployment, which is likely to have a negative impact on demand for homes.

A look at house prices and unemployment over the last 20 years unsurprisingly indicates a significant negative correlation with house prices falling as unemployment rises and vice versa.

Please use these blogs to regularly update your view of the financial markets and remember to take a holistic view of your finances. Although liquid assets tend to take the headlines initially during market drops and grab the public’s attention, other assets, such as property, should not be left in the background of thought, as this article demonstrates.

Take care and keep well.

Paul Green

14/08/2020