A New World? What Will Happen After The Recovery?
We are living in interesting times now; you couldn’t have made it up. Apparently planning at the highest level in the UK dismissed talking about this global pandemic risk as it was too far-fetched. Things look different now.
I don’t need to describe the current situation as we are all living in it, let’s just say it’s a nightmare. But will any good come of it?
What happens next?
The health crisis will diminish with time and hopefully an anti-virus, ample testing and a vaccine. Globally, economies and markets will recover and life will return to normal or a new version of normal?
Personally, I think it will be the latter. The NHS and other Key Workers are our heroes, Boris owes his life to the skill, professionalism and dedication of the NHS. We will have massive debt as a country. This makes the 2008/2009 global financial crisis look like a stroll in the park!
A few points to consider:
1. We will have to raise taxes to pay for some of the accrued debt. This may not be straight away as the recovery will be fragile. Businesses will have to get back to normal and the consumer will need to start spending and increase spending as the majority of our economy is based on the consumer spend.
2. Some families (consumers) will have debt and very little or no income and will have to find new jobs or ways to generate income.
3. Businesses may have found different ways to do business with technology aiding many of their staff to work from home. Some businesses may decide they don’t need as many staff.
4. On the other hand, entrepreneurs and the technology used may have created new businesses or new sources of business for existing business helping them expand and grow as the UK recovers.
5. The NHS, Social Services and residential care need better funding. We have seen that the NHS has struggled with a lack of essential equipment (PPE) and some other countries appear to have been better resourced and able to cope with the virus with far lower mortality rates, for example Germany.
Societal Change?
Given all of the above are we likely to see a better society; one in which we value our NHS heroes and other Key Workers? I hope so.
Will this mean that we all pay a little more tax for the benefit of everyone? A society that is a little fairer? I don’t mean soft, if you are able to work ideally you should be working and contributing to society.
A society that doesn’t focus too much on money and what you can buy but genuinely values everybody for what they do or what they have done? We may also find it easier to make changes to combat global warming now we understand the damage nature can wreak on us and the power nature still has.
Although what we are dealing with now is pretty awful, hopefully the outcome, the world we live in after this crisis has gone or been controlled sufficiently, will be better for more people.
What do you think?
Steve Speed
20/04/2020