Please see the below article from Brooks Macdonald detailing their discussions on Markets, US Government Shutdown and the UK Labour Market. Received this morning 11/11/2025.
What has happened?
The S&P 500 staged a strong rebound with a +1.54% gain—its best day in four weeks—lifting it about +3% above Friday’s lows. Tech stocks drove the rally, as the NASDAQ advanced +2.27% and the Magnificent 7 jumped +2.79%, fuelled by Nvidia’s standout +5.79% rise. After dropping -13.6% from recent highs, Nvidia is now just -3.9% off those peaks, highlighting a mega-cap skew in the recovery. Broader indices also participated, with the equal-weight S&P 500 up +0.52% and the Russell 2000 gaining +0.94%. European benchmarks outperformed too, including the STOXX 600 (+1.42%), and the DAX (+1.65%). The uplift spread to other assets, with gold climbing +2.86% in its best session since May.
US government shutdown edges towards resolution
The Senate passed a stopgap funding bill by a 60-40 vote, with some Democrats crossing party lines to support Republicans, setting the stage to end the longest government shutdown on record. President Trump endorsed the deal earlier, and House Speaker Johnson expects swift passage tomorrow, despite delays from shutdown-related airline disruptions. Once resolved, a flood of delayed US economic data will follow—potentially including the September jobs report as early as next week, based on the 2013 precedent where similar backlogs cleared quickly. This could provide fresh insights into the economy amid ongoing volatility.
UK unemployment hits 5% as Labour markets weaken, strengthening BoE easing bets
UK unemployment climbed to 5% in the three months to September—the highest since early 2021—while payrolls dropped by 32,000 in October, the steepest decline since November 2020. Private-sector wage growth slowed to 4.2%, its weakest since the pandemic, amplifying signs of labour market deterioration. Markets now price an ~85% chance of a 25bps Bank of England rate cut in December. Governor Bailey has signalled openness to easing from 4% if inflation cools, supporting dovish views after last week’s narrow 5-4 vote to hold rates.
What does Brooks Macdonald think?
As the US shutdown appears poised for resolution, we’re closely monitoring the upcoming backlog of economic data releases, which could offer clearer signals on labour market trends and broader growth. Meanwhile, the recent market rebound has been heavily skewed toward mega-cap tech stocks, which may continue to amplify overall volatility if broader indices like the equal-weight S&P 500 and small caps fail to sustain their gains.
Bloomberg as at 11/11/2025. TR denotes Net Total Return.
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Alex Clare
11/11/2025