Please see the below article from Brooks Macdonald detailing their discussions on markets, received this morning, 21/04/2026:
What has happened?
Markets retreated on Monday as the weekend’s lack of progress on US-Iran talks sent Brent crude up 5.64% after Trump warned he would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until a deal was signed. The Nasdaq ended a 13-day winning streak, its longest since 1992. This morning sentiment has improved on reports that both sides are sending delegations to Islamabad ahead of the ceasefire’s expiry on Wednesday, with US futures recovering most of Monday’s losses and Polymarket’s implied probability of Hormuz normalisation by end of May rising to 69%.
Who will lead the Federal Reserve?
Today also brings the Senate Banking Committee nomination hearing for Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Warsh has emphasised that monetary policy independence is “essential” while noting the Fed must earn it by staying within its mandate, a careful balance ahead of questions on the near-term rate path. Republican Senator Thom Tillis has threatened to block all Fed appointments until the DOJ probe into Powell concludes, and with only a 13-11 Republican majority on the committee, his vote could prove pivotal.
What does Brooks Macdonald think?
Wednesday’s ceasefire expiry is a clear binary, a deal or extension would likely extend the risk rally and push oil lower, while a breakdown could quickly reverse recent gains. The Warsh hearing adds a further layer of uncertainty, and with inflation expectations already edging higher on both sides of the Atlantic, we continue to favour diversified positioning and are watching the geopolitical and policy newsflow closely.
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Andrew Lloyd
21/04/2026