Please see below article received from Brooks Macdonald this morning, which provides a global market update for your perusal.
What has happened
The closing levels in yesterday’s markets disguised some huge intraday swings, highlighting just how febrile the current market sentiment is. As an example of the extreme volatility yesterday, while the US S&P500 equity index closed the day ‘only’ down -0.2%, intraday the index recorded a massive 8.5% intraday swing in local currency price return terms. The catalyst for the huge swing in price action was attributed to a subsequently-proved ‘fake news’ social media post that US President Trump was mulling a 90-day delay to some of his reciprocal tariffs.
A huge intra-day swing in equity markets
A fake news headline that US President Trump was considering a 90-day delay to some of his reciprocal tariffs for countries excluding China sparked a huge rollercoaster move in markets yesterday. The headline appears to have originated from an interview that US National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett gave on Fox News yesterday, during which he was asked if the US administration would consider a 90-day pause, to which Hassett responded that “I think that the president is going to decide what the president is going to decide.” As a measure of the move, the US S&P500 equity index in local currency price return terms went from a -4.7% drop shortly after the start of trading on Monday, to surge at one point to an intra-day gain of +3.4%, before subsequently unwinding those gains. In percentage terms, the 8.5% swing was the biggest intraday swing in over 5 years for the US S&P500 equity index, since March 2020.
Is Trump still in negotiation mode?
While investors are split on whether US President Trump’s tariffs are a permanent fixture going forwards or just a negotiating tactic, comments from Trump yesterday suggested it might yet still be more the latter potentially. Trump yesterday said that “we have many, many countries that are coming to negotiate deals with us, and there are going to be fair deals”, that “negotiations with other countries [excluding China], which have also requested meetings, will begin taking place immediately”, and later adding that “there can be permanent tariffs and there can also be negotiations because there are things that we need beyond tariffs”. Separately, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent yesterday said that “everything is on the table” when asked about the possibility of tariffs being lowered.
What does Brooks Macdonald think
When markets are this volatile, it pays to take a step back from the noise, to try to understand what we do know but perhaps more importantly what we don’t yet know. We know the scale of Trump’s tariffs and we know their planned implementation dates, as well as some retaliatory tariff plans from other countries. However, what we don’t yet know is whether these tariffs will actually end up sticking, and at what rates if at all – as we saw yesterday, even a glimmer of hope that Trump might only delay tariffs saw massive intraday moves in markets. Given Trump’s proclivity for changing his mind, and the range of tariff outcomes that are still “on the table”, it makes sense to stay calm and not to make any rash decisions that one might later regret.
Please check in again with us soon for further relevant content and market news.
Chloe
08/04/2025