Please see below an article published by AJ Bell yesterday (25/08/2022) and received today (26/08/2022), which details Franklin Templeton’s Emerging Markets Team views on Emerging Markets:
1. Latin American markets rebounded in July, with Chile, Brazil and Peru among the leading performers, while Mexico and Colombia lagged. In Brazil, a smaller-than-expected increase in consumer prices in the first half of July, raised expectations of the start of a downward trend in inflation. Additionally, the labour market continued to recover with June unemployment falling to its lowest level since 2015. Although Mexico’s second-quarter GDP growth exceeded market expectations, investors expect to see easing growth in the second half of 2022 on the back of weaker US demand.
2.Earnings growth in emerging markets (EMs) for 2022 has been cut to -6% from +6% at the start of the year, based on consensus estimates. China has driven the reduction in EM earnings growth, with forecasts for 2022 declining to 4% growth from 14% over the same period. Analyst earnings revisions indicate further downward pressure on earnings forecasts is likely. The first half 2022 earnings season is expected to be weak, but the market has already discounted this scenario. Investors are likely to focus on guidance for 2023. Consensus expectations for next year call for 8% growth, relatively unchanged since the start of the year.
3. The US dollar trade-weighted index weakened modestly in July after reaching a cycle high in the month as investors discounted the timing of a peak in the US interest-rate cycle. The direction of the US dollar matters to EMs as it influences capital flows and the availability of liquidity. A strong US dollar tends to coincide with capital outflows and reduced liquidity availability in EMs, whereas a weak US dollar tends to coincide with capital inflows and the opposite trend for liquidity. As the US dollar strengthens and liquidity declines, companies with foreign currency debt find it harder to refinance foreign currency debt or raise new loans and vice versa. Expectations that the US Federal Reserve may be closer to the end than the start of its rate-hiking cycle have recently led the US dollar to weaken, leading to an improvement in liquidity conditions in EMs – foreign fund flows have increased into selected EMs, including India.
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Carl Mitchell – Dip PFS
Independent Financial Adviser
26/08/2022