Please see below, Brooks Macdonald’s Daily Investment Bulletin providing a brief analysis of the key factors currently affecting global investment markets. Received today – 10/04/2026
What has happened?
The prospect of continued de‑escalation supported a risk‑on tone across markets yesterday. The S&P 500 rising +0.62% to reach a one‑month high. This marked the index’s 7th consecutive gain, leaving it less than 2.5% below its late‑January record high. Leadership came from the Mag-7 (+1.58%), while gains were broad‑based across most sectors. The main exceptions were software & services (‑2.18%) and energy (‑1.19%). Improved sentiment also fed through to rates markets. Investors grew more confident that the Federal Reserve could still deliver rate cuts later this year, with markets now pricing a 33% probability of a cut by the December meeting. In contrast, European equities underperformed modestly, giving back some of Wednesday’s strong gains. The STOXX 600 slipped -0.15%. Renewed concerns around the inflation outlook pushed the 1‑year euro inflation swap up 12.2bps to 3.23%, while Brent oil price had risen +1.23% to $95.92/bbl.
Ceasefire optimism gains traction
Markets were buoyed primarily by geopolitical developments. Reports that Israel would begin direct talks with Lebanon as soon as possible, alongside comments from President Trump suggesting Israel was scaling back operations, helped ease fears of a broader regional escalation. Lebanon had been viewed as a potential flashpoint, particularly following evacuation orders issued in parts of Beirut and sharp rhetoric from Iranian officials. Against that backdrop, tentative progress toward dialogue reduced the risk that the ceasefire could unravel ahead of this weekend’s talks.
Backward‑looking data offers limited reassurance
US economic data released yesterday highlighted lingering inflation pressures. February PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, came in as expected at 0.4% m‑o‑m for both headline and core. Year‑on‑year, headline PCE held at 2.8%, while core eased slightly to 3.0%, which is still comfortably above the Fed’s 2% target, even before recent energy‑related disruptions. Elsewhere, initial jobless claims rose more than expected to 219k, while Q4 GDP growth was revised down again to an annualised 0.5%, highlighting a slowing backdrop.
What does Brooks Macdonald think?
Although oil prices have eased since the ceasefire announcement, inflation concerns remain elevated. That keeps the focus firmly on today’s US CPI release for March, which is the first inflation print to include the period since the Iran conflict began at the end of February. The data will be closely watched for signs of renewed energy‑driven price pressures and potential second‑round effects. While markets have welcomed tentative geopolitical progress, inflation dynamics remain the key constraint for central banks. This reinforces the importance of maintaining balanced portfolios and avoiding over‑reaction to short‑term market optimism.
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Alex Kitteringham
10th April 2026