Below are the latest insights from the De Lisle Partners investment team regarding the recent developments in Iran. Received today – 23/06/2025:
Despite weekend commentators gaming out a range of negative scenarios for an Iranian response to US strikes, we – and the markets – remain calm. In early futures trading on Monday, the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices are all slightly positive, while the larger initial move in crude oil was sold.
This is not without precedent, as markets have previously strengthened on US interventions in the Gulf. For example, the S&P 500 rose 4% in early 1991 at the start of the First Gulf War, ending the 1990/1 recession, and went straight on up in a surge of nationalism to trade 16% higher by February 11. Even energy stocks kept pace although the oil price went down.
Today Monday June 23 the market is not so depressed, having already surged since April. But we have clues from this morning’s futures markets and from the rise in the Tel Aviv, Egypt and UAE stock markets yesterday that there is plenty of support for the US strikes. Gold is down and the dollar is up as a further show of confidence in American exceptionalism. Trump’s display of decisive power seems well liked in these politically fractious times.
The reaction today is muted because there is little current concern. The Houthi threat to the Strait of Hormuz is not credible and China and Russia have looked on. American confidence is shown in the 0.6% rise in the dollar and longer-term oil futures reflect little concern of supply disruption. Gold, as a proxy for fear, is not moving much this morning.
For us, our themes are unchanged. Our portfolio is steadfast in long-term secular themes in re-industrialisation and power infrastructure while being counterbalanced by exposure in oil service that strengthens on geopolitical uncertainty. We remain at low levels of liquidity and would add to existing holdings selectively on weakness.
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Marcus Blenkinsop
23rd June 2025