Please see below the daily update article from Brooks Macdonald, received this morning – 11/06/2026
What has happened?
Markets sold off sharply as US-Iran tensions escalated, with the US launching a fresh wave of strikes against Iran for a second consecutive day. Brent crude rose after Trump warned the US would “hit them hard” and said Iran “will have to pay the price” for stalled negotiations. Iran’s response broadened beyond the Strait, with Press TV reporting drone strikes on the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain and further strikes on Kuwait and Jordan. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell, with tech leading declines in a rotation into defensives, and Asian equities followed lower this morning. On Polymarket, the probability of the Strait reopening by end-July fell to just 26%. Adding to AI-capex unease, Oracle shares fell after hours on capex of $55.7bn, around $5bn above expectations, and plans to raise a further ~$40bn. Results beat, but the capex overshoot dominated. All eyes now turn to the ECB today, where a 25bp hike to 2.25% is widely expected, the first since 2023.
The CPI relief was drowned out
In any other week, the May US CPI print would have been the main story. Core CPI came in softer than expected at 0.2% month-on-month, taking the annual rate to 2.9%, which helped dial back some speculation about a near-term Fed hike, though swaps continued to price a hike by December. The relief was completely outweighed by geopolitical headlines and rising oil, with Treasuries initially rallying before reversing to end with yields higher. This captures the current dynamic well, with the Strait of Hormuz the master variable, even encouraging inflation data struggles to move the needle while oil is rising and the conflict escalating.
What does Brooks Macdonald think?
The renewed escalation is a stark reminder of how fragile the situation remains, and how quickly the narrative can flip from deal optimism to stagflation fears. With the probability of a near-term Strait reopening collapsing, markets are repricing the risk of a more prolonged conflict, and with it, the stagflationary scenario of higher oil, sticky inflation and weaker growth. The soft core CPI print suggests underlying disinflation remains intact beneath the energy shock, but it is for now a secondary consideration. Today’s ECB decision is unlikely to surprise on the hike itself but the key will be whether Lagarde keeps further tightening on the table or signals a more cautious path given the weak growth backdrop. We continue to favour diversified positioning and remain short duration.
Please continue to check our blog content for advice, planning issues and the latest investment, market and economic updates from leading investment houses.
Cherise Lancaster
11/06/2026